WHAT WE’RE THINKING & SEEING
Knowing you’re very busy and bombarded with messages, we’ll keep our comments and observations short. If you want more detail, please don’t hesitate to ask us questions
BUSINESS HOURS
- Monday-Friday: 8:30am to 4:30pm
- Sat-Sun: Closed
TROUBLE WITH THE CURVE
The yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007. Yield curve inversions have preceded the last 7 recessions. Inversions tend to happen when the Federal Reserve raises short-term interest rates yet long-term bond yields decline (indicating a growth slowdown). While yield curve inversions historically are a good predictor of recessions, such inversions are not […]
HISTORICAL BULL & BEAR MARKETS
The following chart shows a timeline from the 1920’s through to today. The vertical pink shadings are recessions. Unshaded periods on the timeline are economic expansions. The blue “mountain” graphics are a Bull market’s performance of the S&P 500 from the end of a Bear market—the “trough”—to the end of the Bull market—the “peak”. The […]
BEAR MARKET ON THE HORIZON?
With the worst performance in stocks for a Thanksgiving week since 1939, the S&P 500 has experienced a “correction.” Last Friday’s close is down 10% from its high of 2940 this past September earlier. The S&P 500 is flat for the year, the foreign stock markets are down 10% or so, and the US bond […]
MARKET PULLBACKS
Six trading days ago, the Dow Jones Average closed at an all-time high. Yesterday’s 3%-plus drop of 831 points in the Dow was the biggest in 8 months. With the Dow down another 546 points today, this index is now 1,736 points of its high—a 6.93% decline. (A 10% decline is considered a “correction”.) What […]