For most of us, the holidays are a time to reflect on the year – the accomplishments and memories made, the challenges endured, and the triumphs achieved. For investors, in contrast, the holidays mean we are that much closer to leaving a difficult 2022 behind for good. During 2022, the economic environment was dominated by […]
Return of the Old Normal The year 2022 was singularly difficult for both bonds and stocks. As the graph indicates, there were a number of key events that could be called out as the catalysts for this strain on the markets. (Click the image below to download a PDF copy and for clickable links.)
The Fed: Eye of the Storm While the Ukraine crisis continues to complicate energy supplies and prices, especially in Europe, and milder coronavirus variants cause deaths in the U.S., the primary driver of short-term economic events has been the Federal Reserve (“The Fed”). (Click the image below to download a PDF copy and for clickable […]
”Recession Speak” has become the language of finance, and the factors which signify an economic slowdown are being debated with gusto. However, there is little agreement about the timing, severity, and length of the recession we may face. (Click the image below to download a PDF copy and for clickable links.)
Three months ago, the economy was robust. COVID was less lethal, and the global re-opening was exuberant. U.S. consumers were clamoring for domestic travel, houses, furniture, and automobiles. Wages were up 5.4% in 2021, the highest in 20 years, and GDP climbed to $24 trillion, a 5.5% increase after adjusting for inflation. (Click the image […]
By nearly every measure, 2021 was a booming year. The economy, aided by $6 trillion of Trump and Biden deficits and an accommodative Federal Reserve, roared back to life. GDP growth could reach an annual 5.5%, the highest result in over 35 years. Unemployment dropped from 6.7% to 3.9% and there are over 10 million […]
2021 estimates as outlined in the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections Evergrande, China’s second largest real estate developer by sales, is on the brink of collapse after the country’s central bank tightened credit and tried to address its overbuilding problem. As China continues to tighten, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see more leveraged companies […]
After a dozen years of fighting deflation, COVID has created a series of (not so) “tiny bubbles” reminiscent of the old Lawrence Welk Show. The market is in a perpetual state of everyone wanting the same things at the same time. During the throes of the pandemic, it was toilet paper, yeast, and home organization […]
After a historically tumultuous 2020, we could have all used a breather. Instead, the first week of 2021 saw the storming of the U.S. Capitol by protesters trying to stop the presidential election certification. Hundreds have been arrested since then, and security remains tight in Washington, D.C. against a backdrop of heightened tension….(Click the image […]
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